Things Begin to Slow Down. Except for the Spread of the Virus!
You can see everything slowing down. Restaurants started selling take-out, and a few are doing O.K. at it, but with so many people out of work and running out of money, others are just giving up and closing the doors. Most of them will likely never reopen. Other types of stores are also suffering. Those small businesses whose owners own and live on premises and have low overhead may be able to hold on. Those who have expensive leases or high rents will simply be unable to pay. Commercial real estate will collapse.
All types of businesses are affected. Even bookstores and libraries are closed, for what I think is the first time in history.
Yes, many workers can collect unemployment, but the avalanche of applicants is collapsing the system and delaying checks. The Federal aid to workers just announced should help, but again it will probably be too late to do much for many. They are having to borrow money and run up credit cards now, and will have to use much of the money to pay off debt.
The drying up of business will drastically cut sales tax revenues to States. The coming wave of business failures and bankruptcies will cut both commercial and private real estate values. This will cut property tax revenues to towns and counties. It will also make homeowners feel much poorer, as will the decline in value of retirement accounts. People will become more and more unwilling to spend money, and hostile to increased taxes.
At the same time tax revenues are steeply declining, expenses for all levels of government will be quickly increasing. States and municipalities that are already on the verge of bankruptcy due to pension and other costs will be pushed over the edge. Public land and parks will be sold off to get money. Roads and infrastructure will fall apart.
Political "leaders" have found themselves in a horrible bind, a lose-lose situation. If they lift the restrictions on movement and association to goose the economy, the virus will quickly spread and the death toll will be horrendous. If they don't, the "curve" will level off and the medical system may survive, but the economic toll will be horrendous. There is no easy way out, barring miraculous discovery of a vaccine or treatment.
Like the Great Depression, this is going to burn itself into the National Consciousness. Things are not going to quickly return to what they were. People's behaviors will be forever changed. Hoarding will replace spending. Combined with the normal decline in buying caused by an aging population, this will mean the end of conspicuous consumption and the consumer-led economy. Real prices of goods and services will probably decline, but appear to rise due to inflation caused by reckless creation of money and credit by governments desperate to get the economy moving. Medical care will split into a State run system of minimal care for most people, supplemented by herbalists, snake oil salesmen, and quacks when it fails to deliver. The rich and government officials will have their own Cadillac system of privately paid doctors and hospitals.
There will be no choice but to cut military spending. The money simply won't be here, and spending what there is on military adventurism will provoke rebellion at home. The military/industrial/espionage complex that controls America will likely try to start a major war to avoid this spending cutback.
While I certainly could be wrong, and hope I am, I do believe the Golden Age of the American Empire has run its course and is now approaching its end.
All types of businesses are affected. Even bookstores and libraries are closed, for what I think is the first time in history.
Yes, many workers can collect unemployment, but the avalanche of applicants is collapsing the system and delaying checks. The Federal aid to workers just announced should help, but again it will probably be too late to do much for many. They are having to borrow money and run up credit cards now, and will have to use much of the money to pay off debt.
The drying up of business will drastically cut sales tax revenues to States. The coming wave of business failures and bankruptcies will cut both commercial and private real estate values. This will cut property tax revenues to towns and counties. It will also make homeowners feel much poorer, as will the decline in value of retirement accounts. People will become more and more unwilling to spend money, and hostile to increased taxes.
At the same time tax revenues are steeply declining, expenses for all levels of government will be quickly increasing. States and municipalities that are already on the verge of bankruptcy due to pension and other costs will be pushed over the edge. Public land and parks will be sold off to get money. Roads and infrastructure will fall apart.
Political "leaders" have found themselves in a horrible bind, a lose-lose situation. If they lift the restrictions on movement and association to goose the economy, the virus will quickly spread and the death toll will be horrendous. If they don't, the "curve" will level off and the medical system may survive, but the economic toll will be horrendous. There is no easy way out, barring miraculous discovery of a vaccine or treatment.
Like the Great Depression, this is going to burn itself into the National Consciousness. Things are not going to quickly return to what they were. People's behaviors will be forever changed. Hoarding will replace spending. Combined with the normal decline in buying caused by an aging population, this will mean the end of conspicuous consumption and the consumer-led economy. Real prices of goods and services will probably decline, but appear to rise due to inflation caused by reckless creation of money and credit by governments desperate to get the economy moving. Medical care will split into a State run system of minimal care for most people, supplemented by herbalists, snake oil salesmen, and quacks when it fails to deliver. The rich and government officials will have their own Cadillac system of privately paid doctors and hospitals.
There will be no choice but to cut military spending. The money simply won't be here, and spending what there is on military adventurism will provoke rebellion at home. The military/industrial/espionage complex that controls America will likely try to start a major war to avoid this spending cutback.
While I certainly could be wrong, and hope I am, I do believe the Golden Age of the American Empire has run its course and is now approaching its end.
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