The Ukraine War Russo/Euro-American War

The war in Ukraine, which Russia foolishly thought would be over in a few weeks, is now dragging on into its 497th day (I think). Northwards of 350,000 people (both sides) have died. Over 5 million people have fled Ukraine, about 1.5 million going to Russia, the rest mostly to Europe. Many will likely never return.

The Grand Invasion ended quickly in tragedy due to hubris, overconfidence, poor planning and abysmal logistics. But the several "grand counter-offensives" have also failed, as the war has degenerated into WW1 style trench warfare. Much of Eastern Ukraine lies in ruins. Gains of a few hundred yards are being reported by the "news media" as great victories, and losses of the same as "minor setbacks". The total destruction of Bakmuht, apparently of no strategic value, led to Ukrainian defeat, but the Ukrainians are talking of trying to retake it. Why? There is only a heap of rubble there. As in WW1, armor is used and destroyed trying to break the trenches. No biplanes fly overhead, but suicide drones carry out the same functions - minus the romance and dogfights.

Unlike WW1, dangerous civilian infrastructure dots the landscape - nuclear power plants, huge dams, etc. Threats to use these as weapons keep increasing. One dam has already been destroyed, with each side trying to blame the other for it. Out of the area, major Russian pipelines have been destroyed.

The USA and Western Europe have kept regular troops out of the conflict, (which isn't to say Special Forces and "Advisors" haven't been involved). But they have poured billions of dollars in old, and more recently, mid-level weaponry into the conflict. The "just-in-time" compromised supply chains of the West have been stressed to the limit to produce enough ammunition and supplies to keep the war going, but they have produced enough to slow the Russian advance and halt it in places.

As the war drags on, it becomes more and more evident that it is actually a war between Western Europe/United States and Russia. The Ukrainians are the cannon fodder being used to carry it out. The goal of the war for the West is obviously to gain control of Russia's natural resources, particularly oil and gas, but also minerals. They wanted that in Afghanistan but it proved too difficult. Control of the arctic is also at stake.

And the elephant in the room is the preservation of the dollar as the global medium of exchange - though that is more under threat by China than Russia.

Russia's short-term goal is to retake Eastern Ukraine, set up a defensible border, and secure their naval base in Crimea. The long-term goal of the war for Russia is to outlast the collapsing American Empire. America and Europe's repeated attempts to destroy their own economies "to stop global warming", along with the rapid moral and ethical decay of both, doubtless gives Russia hope they can do this. My opinion is that the long term goal is more easily achievable than the short term one.

The West is trying to stymie Russia's plans by sending more and more lethal weaponry to Ukraine. Cluster Bombs are the latest weapon being proposed. Can poison gas be far off? In response Russia has moved tactical nukes to the borders and threatened to use them. As in 1914, we are only one small slip-up away from World War. Both sides are flush with technology but low on manpower, so it will be a different sort of war. Whichever side can best survive the first exchange of high tech weaponry will likely win, because once that is expended there won't be any more, nor any money to build it. The factories will have been destroyed, and the West at least didn't learn anything from WW2 Germany and has concentrated its few huge factories near cities. Easy targets! Russia I can't speak for on that, but it has a vast land area. However, their Ukraine planning shows serious weaknesses in forward planning.

May you live in interesting times!